Now Thailand is entering the verge of the end of what we know as economics. It is not just a depression in the term but the collapsing of the its structure and rules we once understood as laws of economics.
How could such a thing happen?
First, the government will not talk about data, as if it is not happening at all. As several economists already speculated, our country GDP will going less than 1.5% in this first quarter of 2020, the worst ever in the history of Thailand. Still, our Prime Minister will insist that we are in a good shape, economically wise. Our Chief Commander of Army will soon tell us that those who keep criticising this country are not the patriot. None of this following the gravitational force of economic and that will eventually drive Thailand’s economics under an earthly mechanism.
Bank of Thailand has been successfully stop the mighty Thai baht value at approximate 30 THB to USD and now it starts to gradually fall to 31 THB to USD. That will help slow down the collapsing a little. But, of course, the execution was too slow and too late. This should be happening a year ago to help facilitate the Direct Foreign Investment and ensure sustainable scale of investment ecology. Weakening the Thai baht will be a remedy but not the cure.
Every small and medium businesses in Bangkok lost at least 50% of their revenue in the month of January 2020 due to the unexpected pandemic that originated in China, Thailand largest business counterpart and a good economic allied to the government. This disruption happened on the best economic month of Bangkok and Thailand that usually accountable for 10-20% of the annual individual corporate revenue. The government could blame it on ‘bad luck’ but I will blame it on ‘bad karma’, for two most important reasons;
First, Thai government, who is now 80% chaired in all ministries and important board of director for most public enterprises have almost zero knowledge in business. Any time they got stuck on money, they always turn to China for help. And that seemed to be ok for a while. We have had a lot of loan form China to build things in the way that we have no plan on how we will repay our debt. We have a flood of Chinese tourist that helped bringing our GDP from 1% to 4% in 2018-2019. And the government would have thought that this will exist in eternality. They have not been trying to establish any economic domain with western countries in US or EU during the past 5 years under the military regime because they keep post the question about elections. So that rationale brought them into a strong tile with Chinese government who had never asked such a profound question on democracy in Thailand. It has been an easy way out and appear like a good plan so far, until now.
Secondly, the government has never believe that they Thailand economic has been in a shit-hole. We like the analogy that when a pig is smudging in a mud pit, they will never see the mud. Because they are so enjoying this dirty mud, they will think that they stay in heaven and the mud is the best thing that is ever happen in his life. 80% of the government body, who came from military bureaucratic anarchy, has never been in a real business domain. The Thai economy could go up and down, they will get paid their salary the same anyhow. Thus, 80% of this government body never live their life in the real economic ecology. They will never understand anything on how to help their people, economical wise.
Or perhaps they study some economics, of course, but the book they read can be the one that was written when Thailand had only half of today’s population. We need not just the government who ‘slightly’ knows about economics but we need a government who is a ‘master’ on economics to get Thailand through is toughest time ever. This is much worst than 1997, not because of the mightiness of external force but because of the very lame internal force that we are having at the present.
A pig will always be a pig and they will enjoy the mud without bothering the dirtiness they left behind. Thailand’s economic will fall because there is no sign of the government who comprehend the fact that we, people of Thailand, is now already in the economic shit-hole. They are still enjoying the mud with the protection from the upper parliament, who they are fully control. And even if they were having a sight of mud as mud, they have no chance of climbing out of that mud pit by themselves. Their big brother of Chinese government will be very busy with the problem of their own mostly this year. They will have to still stay in this mud pit and get themselves very, very dirty.
It will be too late when Thai people will become to know that they have to kill those pigs before they drag us into a deeper shit-hole. Because the political and military wall has been already built to well protected shit-hole old pigs. And for Thai people, by that time they are to choose between your lives and the pig lives, I trust that they will choose them well. That is the only way to survive this shit-hole economy and live our wonderful live and re-create our country again.